Confidence roller-coaster

Monday, August 31st: 7.1km Recovery (6:16/km)

Just an easy recovery run with Roisin to get back into things.

Tuesday, September 1st: 5.6km Easy (6:02/km)

This was meant to be a Tempo session for Roisin but she was still knackered after Saturday so we pulled the session early doors and just jogged home.

Wednesday, September 2nd: 12.1km Easy (5:19/km)

Pace was back to Easy again on this solo run and managed to get a slightly more impressive distance in!

Thursday, September 3rd: 12.5km Steady (5:10/km)

Now that last weekends HM race is beginning to leave the body I went out at lunchtime for this run along the Grand Canal and threw in some quicker paced stuff on the favourable surface alongside the canal.

Friday, September 4th: 10.0km Easy (5:33/km)

This was planned to be my LSR for the weekend but almost from the get go I felt jaded and awkward. Managed to complete 10km and called it quits at that stage.

Saturday, September 5th: 33.0km LSR (5:09/km)

I felt much better this morning when out for my second chance at my LSR. Immediately the pace was tasty and I thought about holding back a bit but gave in to a pace that felt ok. I took in the Poppintree Parkrun @ MP as part of this run after about 4.5km before continuing on at approx 5:05/km thereafter.By 27km things were beginning to get a little tougher so I slowed down a little bit to about 5:25/km. However, this was a bit too late as by about 30km I was really beginning to fall apart! I made it as far as 33km but quit at that, 2km short of goal distance.

Pretty disappointed afterwards but tried to reason that it was all a bit quick just one week after Tullamore and that if I had ran at a more suitable ‘Easy’ pace then I’d have managed the trip no problem.

Sunday, September 6th: Rest Day

The AI SF replay with the Dubs was on last night so all-in-all felt it was a convenient time to call in a rest day.

Week Summary:

RTW: 6 from 7 days

DTW: 80.3km

DTY: 2,209.5km

Monday, September 7th: 7.1km Easy (5:41/km)

Another lunchtime run but this time easier and shorter.

Tuesday, September 8th: 11.6km Easy (5:34/km)

This was a tempo run for Roisin after last weeks cancelled session. Altogether more straightforward and she could have ran for longer.

Wednesday, September 9th: 22.7km MP run (21.7km @ 4:39/km)

After my own dismal sessions last week I felt it would be good mentally and physically to do a 20km @ MP run this evening. So, I parked in Le Cheile’s track in Leixlip and after a 1km warm-up to get onto the canal path I started into the MP bit in a Westerly direction. The terrain was a mixture of grass and trail before opening into a better gravel path. Once the far side of Maynooth it reverted back to trail/grass. All this meant it was a little tougher than a main road equivalent and this was confirmed when I detoured via Carton House on the way home and for the same effort I appeared to be going a few seconds quicker. Ended up with almost 22km @ MP in the end so well happy with that as I could easily have done a few more on the day.

Confidence somewhat restored!

Thursday, September 10th: 15.4km Easy (5:34/km)

John joined me for this run as it was supposed to be a 20km run on tired legs. As it was I felt 15km was enough on the night as the weather turned and even though the legs were fine for further kms the mind was just bored!

Friday, September 11th: Rest Day

Took a rest day to recover from past two days.

Saturday, September 12th: 7.4km St. Anne's Parkrun (20:35)

Fancied giving a parkrun a proper blast, however on the morning itself it tiryned out to be a bit breezy. The legs were still a bit tired from Wednesday and so it was that at halfway in St. Anne’s I kinda gave up a little. I sped up again over the last km but by that stage I’d voluntarily given up about 20 seconds. A sub 20min was not in the system today so I think I made the right call in the end!

Sunday, September 13th: Rest Day

Not sure why as I can’t remember but took today off!

Week Summary:

RTW: 6 from 7 days

DTW: 64.2km

DTY: 2,273.7km

Disappointment in Tullamore HM

Monday, August 17th: Rest Day

After being away in Powerscourt and running on both Saturday and Sunday I decided to just take today as a rest day.

Tuesday, August 18th: 6.5km Recovery (6:20/km)

Very relaxed Recovery run with Roisin.

Wednesday, August 19th: 12.7km Tempo: 10 x 840m laps @ (4:15/km) (6:12/km)

A 2km warm-up as ever and then the longest Tempo Run of this plan – 10 laps at 4:15/km. I changed direction after 5 laps in order to avoid any niggles that might result in 4 ninety degree corners on each lap.

Thursday, August 20th: 11.6km Easy (8.3km @ 5:15/km)

This was Roisin’s Tempo run for the week and I used it as an easy run after last night’s session.

Friday, August 21st: 15.0km Recovery (6:24/km)

Myself and Roisin used this run as a recovery for the past couple of night’s sessions, and in advance of my LSR tomorrow.

Saturday, August 22nd: 35.2km LSR (5:33/km)

Second last really long run of the plan called for a 35km jaunt! Met up with John at 9am and we trotted over to Poppintree Parkrun for its 9:30am start. Just jogged around this in 25:52 or thereabouts in my 41st parkrun and then continued on for a tour of the Northside. John was beginning to wane around 15km and soon after the same problems started to grip me. Turned out I was just starving really and when we go to 23.5km we were back at my place where we had a quick morsel of food before going back out. John’s run was complete after 25km but that was fine as I was much more energised with my newly acquired calories and they managed to power me on for most of the remaining 10km. Must say though that with 1.5km remaining I started to go real low on energy again so I was happy when I got back home and the run was done. If nothing else it was a timely reminder about getting a proper breakfast before the big raceday!

Sunday, August 23rd: 11.0km Recovery (6:17/km)

Roisin was doing her LSR of 34km this morning so I joined her for the last 11km to keep her company. Very wet weather but had at least stopped raining by the time I got out!

Off to Croker afterwards to watch Tyrone narrowly lose out to Kerry. L

Week Summary:

RTW: 6 from 7 days

DTW: 92.0km

DTY: 2,076.1km

Monday, August 24th: 8.1km Easy (5:33/km)

Went for a very easy lunchtime run at work. Legs feeling heavy from the 61km over the past three days.

Tuesday, August 25th: 9.5km Intervals: 5 x 2:30 @3:55/km

Threw in a short interval session of 5 x approx. 600m @ 5k pace. Kept it short for a number of reasons but mainly because it’s the first structured interval session for a while and also having one eye on next Saturday’s HM race in Tullamore. The session itself went well but having completed the 5th rep without too much fuss I was happy not to have to do any more!

Wednesday, August 26th: 7.6km Recovery (6:17/km)

Similar run to last night’s but ran this with Roisin at her pace. Much slower but still a steady pace in the end.

Thursday, August 27th: Rest Day

Time for a rest day!

Friday, August 28th: 5.0km Easy (5:27/km)

A nice easy 5km in advance of the race tomorrow.

Saturday, August 29th: 22.9km Tullamore HM (1:35:45)

Kinda disappointed with this race. I was aiming for sub 1:33 but struggled to keep on pace for the first half into the breeze and slight incline. After turning at mile 6 the breeze was sorely missed as it got very warm and I just couldn't maintain race pace. Pushed it to the finish but little to no reward. Decided to abort 3:15 plans in Berlin and aim for 3:20 instead.

Sunday, August 30th: Rest Day

Pretty tired after yesterday’s run so just took a rest day instead. A poor mileage week but will just write this one off and start afresh tomorrow!

Week Summary:

RTW: 5 from 7 days

DTW: 53.1km

DTY: 2,129.2km

Ticking along...

Monday, August 10th: 10.9km Easy (5:28/km)

Joined Roisin for her Tempo session this evening which consisted of a 2km jog followed by a 2.5km (3 laps) tempo @ 5:15/km, a 830m recovery lap and then 3.3km (4 laps) @ 5:15/km before jogging home.

Tuesday, August 11th: 13.2km CH: Intervals 15 x 400m @ 91secs (3:36/km)

Went down to the club for the first time in ages to see what they were doing. Turned out the session was totally wrong for me (in my eyes at least) with too many reps of too quick a pace. Would be great for 5km training but not so good for where I am in my training. Perhaps if I had progressed up through the reps week-by-week but aftert this evening I decided to continue do my own thing training plan-wise.

Wednesday, August 12th: 15.3km MLR (5:42/km)

Needed add a few midweek kms so ran an out and back course towards Barrystown (Kilbarrack) for this. Nothing much more exciting than that.

Thursday, August 13th: 11.0km Tempo – 9 laps (4:20/km)

Tempo run this evening and after the past couple of days I was a little tired on the jog down/warm-up. Managed to just about get through the session. Must be smarter about easy/hard day allocation if future!

Friday, August 14th: Rest Day

Was going to go out for a short recovery run but then other stuff got in the way so by the time I could have gone out I decided to leave it as I was running long in the morning anyway.

Saturday, August 15th: 31.2km LSR including Hartstown Parkrun 22:11 (15.4km @ 5:06/km, 10.8km @ 5:36/km)

I ran from the house via Ballymun, Finglas and Ashtown before hitting the canal tow path before continuing on to Hartstown for their parkrun. Took the run across fairly steady paced so was beginning to feel it a bit on arrival.

As it was I was a couple of mins late and as I ran through the park I could see the field starting on their way across the pitches. About 2 mins had passed when I crossed the start line so I was picking off lots of others during the first half of the race. This slowed down a bit in the second half but I still managed to finish in 15th position of 65 and in a watch time of 22:11.

Afterwards I ran with Stephen (home on holidays from Philadelphia) to the Phoenix Park to see out my run at 31.2km. I was well happy to have been finished as I was getting extremely hungry over the last 5km…I guess that’s what happens when having only one protein bar before setting out!

Sunday, August 16th: 15.9km MLR (6:25/km)

Myself and R were down in Powerscourt for a couple of nights for her birthday so we had a 16km run to complete on the Sunday. Still tired from the previous day’s run we kept to the grounds of the Hotel including their riverside walk which was very pleasant indeed. Well, apart from the quite severe hill in the middle of it all!

A nice run to round out the week! If I’d realised I was so close I would probably have fitted another 2.5km in to bring it up to 100km!

Week Summary:

RTW: 6 from 7 days

DTW: 97.5km

DTY: 1,984.1km

Castlebar Greenway

Monday, August 3rd: 15.2km Recovery (6:14/km)

Still in Mayo so ran the Turlough House to Castlebar Greenway. Very pleasant experience and the route is very good. Kept it nice and gentle in light of Saturday.

Tuesday, August 4th: Rest Day

Still feeling a bit tired after Saturday’s run so took a rest day.

Wednesday, August 5th: 10.6km Tempo Session (6.6km @ 4:20/km)

Refreshed after the rest day it was time for my weekly Tempo run. 8 laps of the circuit led to 6.6km in total. Happy enough with this.

Thursday, August 6th: 22.1km Run#1: Recovery (10.2km @ 6:24/km), Run#2: Recovery (11.9km @ 6:13/km)

Myself and R weere both off work today so it allowed for a long run. However we were both feeling a bit fatigued so we opted to split the day into two runs instead. Morning run was a bit tougher than the evening run. Wise choice in the end.

Friday, August 7th: 9.7km Easy (5:42/km)

Easy run around the local park.

Saturday, August 8th: 21.9km MLR with Poppintree Parkrun (20:29)

Kept this LSR as more a MLR seeing as I’d already done 22km on Thursday. Decided to incorporate a parkrun also and raced it but was quite a bit off my pb. Daft kind of run really as it was early in my session and I was never gonna PB but just wanted a blow-out really. Funny thing was that halfway through I eases right back as I knew the PB was definitely not on as the pace was slowing. Ended up it was more a lack of GPS signal than pace and if I had kept racing I would have been only a few seconds off. Ah well!

Sunday, August 9th: 9.6km Recovery (5:59/km)

An easy recovery to see the week out. 

Week Summary:

RTW: 7 from 7 days

DTW: 89.3km

DTY: 1,886.6km

Key Training Session #1

Monday, July 27th: 6.4km Recovery (5:44/km)

Very tired after the past two days’ runs so it was just a short easy run this evening with John.

Tuesday, July 28th: 7.1km Recovery (6:12/km)

All three of us reckoned postponing the Tempo run til tomorrow made most sense so myself and Roisin went out for a very easy run. Correct decision!

Wednesday, July 29th: 11.6km Tempo Session (7.4km @ 4:21/km)

Suitably refreshed from the weekend by now, myself, Roisin and John jogged the 2km down to the start point. My aim was to add a lap to last time out. However it was also going to be aimed at 4:20/km – 3 secs per km faster than last time.

First lap went well but after lap 2 the average was down to 4:21/km pace, so I had to keep a close watch on pace after that. By the end of lap 5 I managed to pass Roisin on her recovery lap (she was doing 2 sets of 3 laps). I was expecting to see John in the distance over the last couple of laps but he had his run completed before I got the chance. Final couple of laps were a bit tougher and that can be seen in a slight rise in HR. Overall though, my HR was well below where I expected it to be which is a good thing.

Thursday, July 30th: 8.5km Steady (5:00/km)

Went for a run at lunchtime. Presumed I’d run nice and easy after last night but after the first km the pace was fastish (~5:00/km) and the HR still quite low (~132bpm) and effort was grand. Stayed with it for the remainder of the run and although it got a little tougher on the return into the breeze it never got anyways hard. Happy when finished with a good steady run. Tomorrow will be a very relaxed run for sure!

Friday, July 31st: Rest Day

Was going to go out in the evening but after a couple of big days I decided a rest day in advance of tomorrow’s LSR was the optimal session!

Saturday, August 1st: 34.0km LSR with 16k @ MP (16k @ 4:42/km)

This run was a key training run in my plan for Berlin. I had targeted 14km @ MP so this was going to tell a lot about where my training is at.

We were travelling to Mayo in the early afternoon so I was up before 8am for this one. Quick breakfast of a bowl of granola and a cup of coffee and I was all set. Just a toilet visit (coffee was doing its work!) before I was out the door. My route was towards the Coast for the first bit, run the At. Anne’s Parkrun for the start of the faster stuff before adding a heap more and then jogging the remainder home.

The first 10.5km to St. Anne’s were unremarkable apart for the need of a return toilet trip growing over the last couple of kms. I managed a quick visit to the Red Stables before arriving at race HQ with Mark halfway through his RD briefing. A very efficient schedule meant that in total my break here was less than 5 mins before the run was started by Mark.

I settled in to a nice pace for the first km with my GPS struggling a little to pace me correctly. I figured I was going according to plan and so kept around this pace for the remainder of the first lap. Passing through halfway I was listening out for an 11:50 split but the guy announced 11:23 instead! Well ahead of target so I decided I should slow down a little. Again, I couldn’t trust the watch fully so I mainly went by effort although it was very easily to be dragged around with the crowd!

On the final straight to the line I found it difficult to hold myself back and not make a run for home as most of those around me were! Discipline won out however and I trotted over the line for a time of 22:52 – 28 seconds ahead of target. This meant that my 4:40/km intended pace was actually more like 4:35/km. I hoped this would not cause issues later in my run!

After getting my token scanned I was immediately off running again. This time MP seemed more difficult to maintain, I guess because there was no other runners helping to pace me! lso, there was a gusty breeze to contend with which seemed to always be in my face! I was now running southwards along the Coast Road but after several kms along the Clontarf promenade the wind was just getting ridiculously strong so I decided to retrace my steps back via St. Anne’s. Although this felt easier the pace never really got any faster and maintained around the 4:45/km level. Because I was a little off my target pace I decided to push the faster stuff out to 16km instead of the prescribed 14km. Things only really got anyways difficult in the last few hundred metres however.

By the time I was I Raheny village I was done with the faster stuff so it was now just a matter of jogging it home. I was still pretty knackered at this stage though so even though the pace was quite decent I just got home and rested up until our car journey a couple of hours later.

Job done and a great boost for my training. I may have missed out on the goal pace by a couple of seconds but I’d be confident of holding that effort for a lot longer.

Sunday, August 2nd: Rest Day

Seeing as I was at home I decided I’d just enjoy the day so ended up doing nothing but resting.

Week Summary:

RTW: 6 from 7 days

DTW: 67.7km

DTY: 1,797.3km

Balla 10k

Monday, July 20th: 17.0km Easy (5:38/km)

After the race yesterday I had always planned to do another medium distance run today to compensate for lack of a true LSR this weekend. The idea of running on tired legs certainly worked! I ran down to Kilbarrack as an out and back route in order to prevent myself from cutting it short on a series of laps. Stopped briefly about 3km in to stretch out the quads – they were the only things really giving any issues, and even at that it is because of the effort on Sunday and should clear up in a day or two. Kept the pace in around 5:30/km after a couple of very slow 6:00+ warm up kms.

By the time I returned home I was happy to be done but if needed could have tacked on a few extra easily enough so that’s a good result!

Tuesday, July 21st: 10.5km Tempo Session (6.5km @ 4:22/km)

After probably doing a bit too much over the past few days this evening’s Tempo was just a bridge too far for Roisin so she postponed her run. That left myself and John to trot the 2km to the beginning of our tempo laps.

After realising that 4:23/km is now my 10 mile pace I decided my Tempo pace should now be around 4:20/km instead. That, allied with tired legs meant my target distance was going to be the same 6km as last time out. All went well for the first 800m lap but from there on my quads were very tight. I was afraid I might tweak one of them early on and managed to wait until 4km before pausing for approx 60 secs of stretching the problem area. Jumped back in and reset the watch for another three laps to bring the total tempo distance up to 6.5km – an extra 500m on last time.

When I got home to upload the data to Garmin Connect the bloody watch lost the data, so just as well I had a good picture of the paces/distances in my head! I think the effort was probably a bit much for pure Tempo/LT effort but happy to have done it anyway. I didn’t want to leave it any later in the week as I’ll be racing on Saturday. Easy paced running now until then. Did a few minutes on the foam roller on the quads… seemed to do something positive for them.

Wednesday, July 22nd: 6.3km Recovery (5:52/km)

Met with John again and just did a few laps of the park and home. Neither of us were feeling too energetic after last night’s LT session.

Thursday, July 23rd: 11.9km Easy (5:40/km)

Legs were a bit freer tonight so upped the distance but kept the pace nice and easy.

Friday, July 24th: Rest Day

Was going to head out for an easy short run but as the evening passed I wondered why bother, considering the past couple of runs were so easy paced anyway and with the race tomorrow surely a total day of rest would be more beneficial in every sense. And so it was!

Saturday, July 25th: 12.0km Balla 10k (42:32)

I got the train down to Castlebar this afternoon leaving me plenty of time before the race start at 7:00pm. I always enjoy going home for this race and the field is usually pretty strong and large. However, this year the field seemed to be much smaller than others (130 or so runners) and even the sharp end of the race wasn’t as well populated.

Myself and Damien did a 2km warm up over the start of the route and by the time we returned to race start we only had a few mins to wait. This race used to start a few metres up the road allowing for a safe straight run up the school avenue but recently it has been pushed back around a corner in the road for some reason. This means the first 20m involves lots of people cutting across to take the corner tight and jump up on the footpath in the process. Can’t help but think that’s a disaster waiting to happen!

After the obligatory photo opportunity for local politicians we were soon away. My goal was to give sub 42mins a bash which would mean sticking to under 4:12/km. Most of the course is either up or down with very few flat sections. The opening km included the drag up to the secondary school and then out past the local golf course. I was tracking a neighbour of mine who often finishes ahead of me. I figured if I track off her I should be home under target. However, just after the first km I drifted past her on a downhill and just about managed a brief cheer to her. I expected she’d stay with me but afterwards my Brother confirmed she’d pulled out after less than a mile with an injury of some sort.

We were now back in the village and most runners were in their groove. Changing of places was few and far between from here on home (I passed about 5 people and thankfully was not passed by anyone). The drop down to the train station before the climb back up the far side is always a toughie but once past that it’s not too bad. First water station arrived at 3km(!) but as with the remaining two ono the course I declined. There is a section around here where you get a bit of a chance to push on and make some time but it was too short-lived for my needs!

Just after halfway we tuned left into a network of boreens before hitting Hooper’s Hills at km6. This is the beginning of what I suspect is the race winning section for the faster guys, but is simply a pain in the ass for the rest of us! I managed to get past a couple of people along here though and then it’s a matter of keeping on for the next two km before returning to the main road with 800m to go.

A slight drag before the main street remains just enough to take away the fast finish you hoped for all race and just leg it for the line. 42:33 ended up on the watch, so well outside target but given the course profile I reckon that was close to sub 42min effort. I’ll definitely look to nail a faster course later in the year to see what I can do and to break the old PB. So, until next year…!

Balla 10km – 42:33.

Sunday, July 26th: 32.0km LSR (5:45/km)

Returned on the afternoon train to Dublin so straight to the park for my LSR of 32km. Felt pretty good when I pushed through the first couple of kms but after about 15km I could feel myself getting progressively more tired. Kept pace at 5:3x for the most part with a speedier couple of kms to close it out. Very happy with the run considering the race yesterday.

Although, had I known that brought me up to 89.7km for the week I’m sure I’d have pushed on the extra 300m!

Week Summary:

RTW: 6 from 7 days

DTW: 89.7km

DTY: 1,729.6km

Mullingar 10 miler

I ran this last year when trying to recover from hamstring issues but in reality should never have attempted it as I slowed down from 4:30/km to less than 5:00/km to come home in a time of 1:18+. Even so, I learned enough from the event to know it was a great race on good road surfaces with no gradient too steep or too long to overcome. This would also help to frame where my fitness is currently and give an indication of what I might realistically be looking at in Berlin.

I was up by 8:30 for my breakfast of a bowl of granola and a cup of coffee and before long we were heading West. We arrived to Dalystown at 10:20am and trotted across to the National School for number pick-up. The coffee had done its duty by this time so I managed to avail of the toilet facilities while there. Time for a bit of a warm-up with 5 strides before a few stretches. I could feel a slight twinge on my right glute so a few ‘Figure of 8’s and I was ready.

Probably the only thing that I could say might improve this race would be the option of a starting mat/gantry. Without this, it is in everyone's interest to cross the start line ASAP and as such encourages slower runners to the front of the pack. This can cause trip issues and while nothing happened this year it can’t be guaranteed for other years. Thankfully the road opens up quite wide within the first 100m and so the congestion gets relieved in next to no time. This first 500m was slightly downhill and I was passing a few runners who had clearly started too far up the field.

We turned left at the finishing junction located at Wallace’s pub and we were now slightly uphill. I tucked in beside a few other runners to avoid the breeze and in no time there was a group of 6/7 working together at the same pace. This lasted a few kms more until we turned off the main road and on to a quieter back country road. I found myself leaving most of the group behind at this point as our pace of 4:18-4:20 was now slipping back quite a bit. I forged on, out on my own for the next few kms passing the odd runner here and there and maintaining a pace of 4:23/km. I was very happy with this as my pre-race strategy was to average around 4:23/km if I could and here I was feeling slightly tested but generally comfortable. I was of the belief at this stage that I should be bang on for 70mins at this pace so all was going according to plan.

We passed through Ballinagore in the blinking of an eye. This conveniently marked the halfway point and once again I looked to be almost on target with a 35:10 time registering on my watch as I passed the 5m sign. We were now on the homeward trail as we left the most Westerly point of the course. Back on the main road and a Mullingar Harrier passed me very slowly. Very slight inclines in the roads were commonplace at this point, not made any easier by the fact I was on my own for most of the way. From what I could tell I was still on target as the 4:23/km remained the status quo. A couple of kms later and we were turning right again, off the main road and onto the final loop. We were now less than 4km from home and things had moved on quite considerably now from 'comfortable' to 'strong effort'! Passed a couple of guys around here who were fading but there was till about 6 runners up ahead where the gap remained steady.

A final 90degree left hand turn and we were now 2km from home. At this point I was beginning to think things were going to be very tight and that rather than remain at the 4:23/km effort I’d have to consider redlining soon to get home in sub 70! Only problem though was that I was already in the red zone! The final run-in was 1.5km of uphill, followed by the initial 500m of slight downhill. Gave it everything I could and once I crested the hill I legged it for the line. Overtook a guy with 600m to go but with 150m remaining he powered on past me again. I had no answer but that was ok because I’d given my all to the course already. The final 100m to the line is a heart breaker because you are required to do a mini-loop for which the body really doesn't care! Crossed the line in 1:10:45 by my watch but seven seconds slower by the race clock.

So, no sub 70 but nevertheless I was still very happy with my race. I eventually worked out that my so-called maths had contained lots of assumptions and few actual calculations! In fact, I needed to run sub 4:20 average pace in order to really go sub 70mins and I simply didn’t have that in me today.

When I review against VDot it shows a slight decline against the shorter races which is fair enough as I probably have a little more work to do on my endurance and I would hope that improvement kicks in over the next 6 weeks til the Tullamore HM which will be my final marker for Berlin. At this moment though the likely target for Berlin will be sub 3:15 (4:37/km).

Mullingar 10 miler: 1:10:45 - New PB.
VDot = 48.3, Marathon prediction = 3:17:29.